Conor Benn might have to work harder than expected against Samuel Vargas
Conor Benn might have to work harder than expected against Samuel Vargas

Boxing betting tips: Conor Benn v Samuel Vargas preview and best bets



Boxing betting tips: Benn v Vargas

3pts Conor Benn v Samuel Vargas to go the distance at 13/8 (Sky Bet)

1pt Shannon Courtenay to win by decision at 5/2 (Bet 365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


The Conor Benn hype train is really gathering pace now and his development faces a thorough examination against Samuel Vargas in London on Saturday.

Son of British boxing legend Nigel, Benn is now beginning to step out of his father's huge shadow and people are starting to take him very seriously following a career-best performance against Sebastian Formella in November.

In what was by far his toughest test to date against a man who had gone the distance with Shawn Porter in his sole defeat three months earlier, the 24-year-old really shone in his first major headline bout as he outboxed and outgunned the German on his way to a shut-out on the cards to make it 17 straight wins. It was a performance that got people excited about how far he could go in the sport and Vargas should be a very good test of his credentials.

The last time Vargas was on these shores, he gave Amir Khan a huge fright in September 2018, dropping the heavy favourite in the second round and then hurting him badly just before the bell sounded for the end of the 10th. Vargas ultimately lost a wide decision, but that highlights the much better company he has mixed in having also been in with world champions Errol Spence Jr and Danny Garcia, along with red-hot prospect Vergil Ortiz Jr last time. He may have been stopped by the latter trio, but competing against world-class operators will stand him in good stead at this level and he will fancy his chances of springing an 8/1 surprise by having too much nous for the 1/10 favourite.

Conor Benn continues to impress
Conor Benn continues to impress

Benn turned over after very little amateur experience and has only boxed 67 rounds as a professional, so the gulf in experience is wide. However, they are on very different trajectories and Eddie Hearn's matchmakers will fancy they are getting Vargas at the right time as the Colombian native is now on the slide. Having now lost three of his last five, the 31-year-old was always going to be up against it when in with the big-punching Ortiz Jr in July but he took some serious punishment that night, especially in the seventh and final round, and that will have put more miles on the clock. Just how much is left in the tank is the big question here.

Maturing Benn must be wary of classy Vargas

Benn has gone from a raw youngster, eager for a tear-up and willing to exchange bombs, to a much more rounded fighter who is able to control a fight behind his excellent jab. That lead left is quickly becoming his main weapon, but he retains his impressive hand speed, head movement and keeps his opponents guessing what is coming next with a tremendous variety of shots. The willingness to trade still lingers, though, and he can be caught, so however good he turns out to be, it should be a fun journey for fans as we find out over the next couple of years.

Vargas (31-6-2), on the other hand, has already found his ceiling and there is certainly no shame in that being just below world class. He has beaten some good men but fallen short when stepped up to the top level and that makes him a good barometer of where Benn is at, albeit a dangerous one. If the Vargas that fought Khan or pushed Luis Collazo to a split decision six month later turns up then an away victory is a real possibility. There have been upsets aplenty since boxing returned from its break last year and most of those have been where an experienced underdog knew just a bit too much for the up-and-coming favourite, so this certainly has the potential to fall into that category. However, everyone involved in the Benn business is banking on the visitor continuing his apparent decline, thanks to his serious beating last time and the nine months that have passed since.

One thing that isn't in doubt is Vargas' toughness, with only the aforementioned trio of Spence, Garcia and Ortiz Jr stopping him and Benn is certainly isn’t on their level just yet, nor does he have the kind of one-punch power his father was famous for, so the 8/11 for the Ilford man to get the job done inside the distance looks plenty short enough, especially as this is advertised as a 10-rounder.

Samuel Vargas has been mixing in elite company of late
Samuel Vargas has been mixing in elite company of late

Even against the heavy-handed Ortiz Jr last time, Vargas didn't go down and was still firing back when the referee waved it off. It's 7/4 that the home fighter wins a decision and that rates the better value if you're wanting to back 'The Destroyer', who appears the most likely winner. However, you can get the FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE at only a fraction shorter at 13/8 (Sky Bet) and that means you have the draw and a Vargas decision on your side as well. That could be the safest option, as you never know quite know what a veteran has left until the first bell rings and if Vargas still has plenty of ambition, this could be a much tougher night's work for Benn than the layers are suggesting.

Courtenay expected to prevail

More Covid-19 chaos means Savannah Marshall now makes the first defence of her world title against late replacement Maria Lindberg and is expected to dominate to justify the quotes of 1/33, so there is more interest in the other female championship bout on the card between SHANNON COURTENAY and Ebanie Bridges.

It should have been a fascinating rematch between Courtenay and Rachel Ball but the latter didn't recover from coronavirus in time and somehow Bridges now finds herself fighting for a vacant world title after just five outings. We won't open that can of worms of how and why, but the Australian has faced pretty moderate opposition to date and it was no surprise to see the sharks ready to pounce when the odds for Courtenay were chalked up earlier in the week. Now a top price of 1/6, the burning question from a punting perspective is can she get the stoppage (5/6), or will she need the judges if she's to claim her first title (5/2)?

Courtenay bounced back from her sole, and hotly-debated, defeat to Ball by stopping Dorota Norek in December and the move down to bantamweight appeared to suit the aggressive Watford native. She boasts the physical and experience advantages and not only will she be suited by the come-forward nature of Bridges, but it should also make for an exciting contest. That is probably why the stoppage is odds-on, but the two-minute round format of the women's game make early wins hard to come by and there is every chance we will see the full 10 sessions here. Courtenay to win in the second half is tempting at 15/8, but a decision victory for the likeable local is where the value appears to lie.

Posted at 1130 GMT on 09/04/21


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